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BGonline.org Forums
Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'
Posted By: Robert Maier In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Gregg Cattanach)
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
Gregg - I'm always amused by people that think they are so clever when the position it technically No Double/Take and they Double and get a pass from a cowardly player. The odds of becoming too good on the next exchange are slim, so why not wait and get to a real Double/Take position and then you have an even better chance of getting this Colonel Whiteflag to pass, without making any error yourself.
Rob - Seriously, how is that different from saying you are amused when people move all in with a flush draw and then think they are clever because their opponent is more likely to win the hand but instead they fold? We aren't trying to win our matches or our chouette games against god, only against mere mortals, most of whom have weaknesses. Pretending there is no skill or value in attempting to exploit those weaknesses to increase your expected value or MWC is lolbad.
I'm sitting at the table playing heads up $ against John Smith. I'm on roll in a position worth 0.7 if I don't double. I can double or redouble, which would result in a position worth 0.6 if taken. However, I judge there to be a 50% chance that John Smith, who to remind everyone, is not god, will make a bad pass. So, my equity by doubling is 0.5*0.6 + 0.5*1.0 = 0.8. So I double, since 0.8 is greater than 0.7. I'm not thinking I'm being clever, I'm actually *being* clever, because I've found a way to increase my expected value, just like the guy who frequently takes down the pot without having to see whether or not he makes his flush.
Help me here, why exactly is it silly for me to think that it is correct for me to make that double? Some one ask Nack how much equity he has accumulated in his life, just in backgammon, taking actions he wouldn't have taken against a perfect player when he found himself sitting across someone he judged to be somewhat less than perfect?
If your goal is to minimize your ER as reported by your favorite bot, that's fine. You're just playing with a different goal in mind. I'm trying to minimize your chance of beating me. I'm trying to take your money, and I'm willing to occasionally look stupid in the effort if that takes more of your money than never looking stupid.
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