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OTB thoughts and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 9:20 p.m.

In Response To: LA Masters Cube #2 back it comes at 8 to me (neilkaz)

Since Dorn was playing quite well up to this point and seemed to quickly grasp rather difficult decisions, I wasn't going to overdo it when it came to caution due to skill factor. My opinion is that it is technically correct to take a tad more loosely at this score than for money (we'll soon have a better handle on that once our Supremo MET has finished rolling out..ETA 1 month).

So I decided to treat this as a money decision to make a very slight adjustment for skill factor. It does look like Dorn almost always misses to make this a 7 roll vs 7 roll position, but 3 pips and two extra checkers is a lot and I'll need big doubles at some point most likely. I just couldn't decide whether to take for money or not... so I thought a little more and since I felt that I was playing very well Sunday in the Masters semis and finals, I decided to pass and try to win from down 5-0/13. Had I known that this was per RO's, a .976 money take, I'd likely have flipped a coin.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
13 point match
pip: 40
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=--DCBC--------------bdccb-:2:1:1:D:1:0:0:13:10
double to 8 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 77.56% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.44% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.53% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.551
Redouble:+1.056
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.849 (-0.101)
Redouble/Take:+0.950
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.050)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.848...+0.850)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.949...+0.951)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 16 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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