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51$ versus 62$

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 11:11 p.m.

In Response To: 51$ versus 62$ (Timothy Chow)

The way that White’s opening 62$ differs from 51$ is that there are three checkers on her 8pt and five on her 6pt instead of four on each point. This altered distribution (effectively having played an extra 8/6) effects White in the following ways:

(1) She is better poised to attack inside.
(2) She is 2 pips further ahead in the race.
(3) Hitting on her 7pt with an ace strips her 8pt.

Black has less incentive to run and more incentive to slot because of (1) and (2): he is more willing to engage in a priming battle. He is conflicted about splitting because the effects of (3) oppose the effects of (1) and (2). I believe this explains the relative margins you see. It all makes sense to me.

Note, however, that opening 62$ should only be played at GG, which means the replier should be at GS. At that score, R is even more correct with 51$-62 and 51$-63, R narrows the gap with 62$-62 and R overcomes the gap with 62$-63 (according the scant GS data I have).

Nack

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