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Double at this score? - XG Rollout

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 2:45 a.m.

In Response To: Double at this score? (Joe Russell)

This rather extensive rollout (top) was done with G11. It is TCTC and I don't plan to extend it any further. The initial rollout of about 1296 that I did with the default XG MET was definitely in favor towards the ND decision by about 0.027 as I recall.

The XGR+ eval (bottom) showed the double to be a whopping 0.179 blunder. Pretty amazing that it would be off by so much. The cubeless and ND equities are actually very close to the rollout results. It is the D/T equity that is way different.

is fnurt

score: 7
pip: 77
11 point match
pip: 106
score: 7

is ez2bcubed
XGID=-A-BCBBB----aB---d-b-abe-A:0:0:1:00:7:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.34% (G: 19.47% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.66% (G: 2.70% B: 0.11%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.37% (G: 19.74% B: 1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.63% (G: 2.80% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.340
Double:+1.005
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.238
Double/Take:+0.237 (-0.001)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.762)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
11000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.233...+0.243)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.229...+0.246)
Double Decision confidence: 56.4%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 45 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

is fnurt

score: 7
pip: 77
11 point match
pip: 106
score: 7

is ez2bcubed
XGID=-A-BCBBB----aB---d-b-abe-A:0:0:1:00:7:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 55.49% (G: 17.23% B: 0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.51% (G: 2.70% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.310
Double:+0.869
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.227
Double/Take:+0.048 (-0.179)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.773)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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