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OTB and RO

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 8:45 p.m.

In Response To: My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play (Dorn Bishop)

To those of you who think you have to absolutely, positively hit: you're right, provided that you make the right play of the 2 after that.

And to those of you who think you have to absolutely, positively step up to the 22 point: you may be just slightly wrong, provided that you don't hit with the 3.

And to those of you who, like me, wanted to have their cake and eat it, too, think again. I fell back on the old adage that the play which wins the most games is usually right. While 24/22, 7/4* is right at DMP and GammonGo, it is wrong by a lot at this score. It even ranks behind not and hitting and NOT stepping up to the 22 point (which only gets you gammoned 2.2% of the time).

Sure enough, Neil rolled 4-1 and coasted to the gammon.

Dorn Bishop (Green) vs. Neil Kazaross (White)
13 point Match

Match to 13. Score Green-White: 8-2

		Pip: 106
		Game 1 13 point match Green-White: Score 8-2
		Pip: 81

#	Ply	Move	Equity
1	R	7/4* 3/1	-0.523
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.500 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 1000 games (equiv. 35579 games), played 2-ply (fast), random seed, with race database.
2	R	24/22 5/2	-0.540 (-0.017)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.544 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 1000 games (equiv. 69990 games), played 2-ply (fast), random seed, with race database.
3	R	5/2 3/1	-0.610 (-0.087)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.628 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 1000 games (equiv. 100706 games), played 2-ply (fast), random seed, with race database.
4	R	24/22 7/4*	-0.636 (-0.113)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.586 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 1000 games (equiv. 32691 games), played 2-ply (fast), random seed, with race database.
5	R	6/4*/1	-0.694 (-0.171)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.685 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 500 games (equiv. 28177 games), played 2-ply (fast), random seed, with race database.

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 12:38:38 PM, 12/10/2009(Export v2.10)

Messages In This Thread

• My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
  Dorn Bishop -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 4:52 a.m.
  • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
    Matt Ryder -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 5:09 a.m.
    • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
      John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 2:56 p.m.
  • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
    Marv Porten -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 5:34 a.m.
  • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
    Max Urban -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 7:13 a.m.
  • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
    David -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 4:10 p.m.
  • My Sunday Afternoon Whopper: 3-2 to Play
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 7:02 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    Dorn Bishop -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 8:45 p.m.
    • XG Rollout
      neilkaz -- Friday, 11 December 2009, at 12:47 a.m.
    • OTB and RO
      Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 11 December 2009, at 8:28 p.m.
      • Detailed RO Results
        Dorn Bishop -- Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 9:40 p.m.