[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Down 6 pips..can I take?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 4:29 p.m.

In Response To: Down 6 pips..can I take? (neilkaz)

Your takepoint ATS is the normal 25% and oppt's 4-cube takepoint is around 18%. Both sides also have some small g chances and his are worth a lot more than yours ATS (~100% to ~43%). I'll give Black 2% gammons here and you 1% which raises the basic takepoint to around 26.5%. How often can you win this position? D2 closes the board leaving you with around 2.5% chances. 16 other numbers make a 5th point while leaving a few flies. I'll give you 2 wins in these 17 games. How about the other 19? You dance on 8.5 of these and say you win 1 of those. That's 3 wins so far. How about the other 11 numbers? I think you're still a dog so maybe you win 4 of these. 7 wins altogether so it looks like a pass to me.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.