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Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 7:53 p.m.

In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Phil Simborg)

I never said it's not a huge swing to double a no-double and get a pass. Of course it is. I just disagree with all this posturing stating with certainty: "I knew he would pass." You don't know this all the time; you can't. Just because on this one trial your opponent passed doesn't discount the risk that he could have taken.

Sure, your position might deteriorate such that your opportunity to bluff double disappears. But the risk that the guy will figure it out and simply take when he has 40% in the game is far worse, at least the way I like to play.

I find it hard to argue against gaining 20% equity by a wrong double/wrong drop vs. gaining 10% by a right doulble/wrong drop or right double/take. What am I missing (aside from brains)?

This math only works if he ALWAYS passes. He won't, of course.

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