[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 9:51 p.m.

In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Robert Maier)

"I don't recall saying anything about knowing that my opponent would pass, only that I believe that's it reasonable to assign a probability to that possibility, and then do the math to arrive at the correct decision about whether or not to make a wrong/dubious double."

and previously you wrote:

"You guys must roll better than me, sometimes my position gets worse instead of getting better, sounds like for some people when they get close to double their position almost always gets better."

I know you never said you would know for sure the opponent would pass. But saying to you "so you know for sure the opponent will pass" is like what you were saying to me when you said that I think the position would always get better. I never said that. So by analogy I am trying to show you are too quick to discount my argument.

When you say to "do the math" how are you going to do that? Say you even have gnu handy. If you just look at the reported ND, DT, and DP numbers then you are assuming the opponent will not error in the future. That is an unreasonable assumption when the whole point of the calculation is thinking the opponent might blunder immediately.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.