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2 checkers back vs. 1 checker back against a superbackgame
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 2 checkers back vs. 1 checker back against a superbackgame (Michael Depreli)
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 9:53 p.m.
For a multitude of reasons, White can trap Blue off his 19pt anchor much more safely and with a higher rate of success than she can trap Blue off his 15pt anchor. With each point that Blue gets pushed back, the further his slime chances deteriorate.
Could you elaborate on the multitude of reasons please? I'd like to see if there's some I haven't yet learned.
I don't claim this is a complete list, but here are some reasons off the top of my head:
(1) If Blue rolls doubles, he will have that much further to bear in/off to hurdle goalkeeper(s). With 66 he'll make the 7pt instead of 3pt, with 55 the 9pt instead of 5pt, with 44 the 11pt instead of the 7pt, etc.
(2) If Blue hits (which creates a goalkeeper or another goalkeeper), her lead checker will have further to go to reach the safety of the 1pt, translating to more chances for White to pick it back up.
(3) If Blue runs a checker without hitting, and White can't hit it, she will hit the trailing checker. If it is in the inner board (6pt rather than 10pt), White has a greater chance to be hit back (either because it is forced or because Blue does not want to move the lead checker directly in range of a current goalkeeper). White gaining another (or sole) goalkeeper increases the chance of recapturing the checker that ran. The closer that a White blot is to her inner board (especially when it's in her inner board), the more its presence reduces or hurts Blue's options.
(4) If Blue is able to run both checkers (by double hitting and then moving again, or hitting one checker and White fans with 11, or she somehow misses everything and Blue runs the other, White has a greater chance to regroup. Not only does Blue have a longer journey home (starting from the 19pt rather than the 15pt), but White will often get an extra half-roll or full-roll to optimize her defensive posture and/or firm up her prime/board while waiting for Blue to come to her.
(5) In spite of White's best trapping efforts, if Blue stubbornly keeps rolling only the numbers that are blocked, and/or if White rolls big set(s), she will be slotting/making the points just behind Blue's anchor. If these points are the 9pt, 8pt, etc., they will be much less effective than if they are the 5pt, 4pt, etc. -- inside points. When Blue then runs and White hits the remaining checker, Blue is more likely to fan (or enter, get hit, enter, get hit, then fan, etc.), allowing White to go after the lead checker with whatever goalkeeper he might have already had plus the one(s) he newly generated, and often without opposition; that is, he can put/keep Blue's trailing checker on the bar before moving towards Blue's helpless lead checker.
(6) If Blue, from the 19pt anchor, continues to roll numbers that don't move while White blows by him, or if Blue eventually runs one checker and White misses him from the points/blots she has left, it may have reached a point where White can win the race without hitting (or she might hit-and-bounce once or twice, Blue will enter with a 6, and White will win the race from there). If Blue's anchor is instead on the 15pt, White still has additional checkers on the 7pt, 8pt and/or 9pt and winning the race is not a realistic possibility.
(7) If White's position becomes disjointed in the fray and Blue's lead checker does reach the 1pt, at least he has to squander extra pips to do it, even a key number he might have used to hurdle (or further run) the trailing checker. This gives White extra time to retrain his efforts on best containing Blue's remaining checker.
(8) When Blue breaks the 15pt anchor and White successfully recaptures both checkers, Blue can still reanchor behind the 15pt (e.g., on the 19pt!), and White has to start trapping procedures anew. In short, the more advanced Blue's anchor, the more work White has ahead of her to push it back and the greater chance of an accident.
Hope that helps.
Nack
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