[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 11:52 p.m.

In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Robert Maier)

I don't use Woolsey's Law at all. I use the Chicago Law:

"If I am not sure if I would take or drop, and I am not sure if I should double or not, I should flip a coin as FOR SURE I will be right half the time. If he's not smart enough to flip a coin on the take decision, he certainly won't be right half the time. So if I'm right half the time and he's not, I'm way ahead of the game."

The coin flip theory has won me many a match as it really is 3-1 that it will benefit me. You see, 4 things can happen: it can tell me to do the wrong thing and it will turn out bad; it can tell me to do the wrong thing and it will turn out good. It will tell me to do the right thing and it will turn out good. Or it can tell me to do the right thing and it will turn out bad. If it turns out bad, it might well have been bad regardless of whether I doubled or not, so that's one out of 3 things that can happen, and the other two are both good. So I gain 2/3 of the time by flipping.

Note: You can sign up for lessons at www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.