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BGonline.org Forums
To hit or not to hit
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: To hit or not to hit (Timothy Chow)
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 4:48 a.m.
Good problem, Tim.
I suspect it's somewhat close, but I like hitting for the extra gammons. If Blue is hit back, he is a favorite to enter before White enters her second checker, which also means that Blue is more likely to hit White's 8pt blot than to have his own 15pt blot hit.
If White fans, Blue closes the board with only 19 numbers, but he can six-prime with 1 number (double 1s) and create a blotless 5pt board with 9 more numbers. Only 7 numbers (61 63 64 66) will leave a repeat blot.
I don't think White has a recube even if she enters both checkers and Blue still fans; she needs to hit the other blot (and Blue still not enter) to earn a redouble, or leap one checker to earn a pass. Black's strongest five-point prime in front of two checkers commands respect.
Given that I think the hit/no-hit decision in your position is close, I'm not hitting if it is White's 1pt instead of 2pt that is vacant; that's a huge change. Making the 3pt vacant instead of the 2pt is a far less impactful adjustment, but if I'm hitting with the 2pt open obviously I'm hitting with a higher point open.
If White's 8pt blot were safely inside, I wouldn't hit (unless maybe a higher point than the 2pt were open).
Nack
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