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Lesson of the Week

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 5:20 a.m.

In Response To: Lesson of the Week (Phil Simborg)

This is a nice position. I had already seen it, courtesy of Phil's opponent who had asked me what I thought. Once I said I would take, the question was why? Most of the reasoning was the same as what Stick gave in his analysis.

But there is a general principle applicable for situations like this that often recurs in many other situations. The idea that when many things have to happen and each of them are very likely, it is easy to feel like you have almost no chance. However, while each event may be very likely, the reality is that the chance that ALL required events will succeed is no longer very likely.

Red is likely to complete his prime. He is likely to jump blue's prime before cracking. He is likely to be missed if forced to hit lose. He is likely to get missed in the outfield. He is likely to complete the closeout and bear off safely and win the race. But they all have to happen, and that is no longer so likely. Sometimes take equity is assembled from numerous fragments of junk. All of them are a few percent here and there. But added together it becomes substantial. That is the case here.

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