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OTB and short rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 3:08 p.m.

In Response To: Money game: Blue to play 6-4 (Timothy Chow)

This was a training game that I played against GNU 2-ply. OTB I thought that 8/2* 6/2 was clear. So I was surprised to find that GNU 2-ply thought it was a 0.026 error compared to the double hit, and that GNU 4-ply agreed. Below is a short rollout that suggests that the two plays are close (I'll try to do a longer rollout soon).

The sequence of moves up to this point was (Blue moving first):

24/20 13/8		13/5*
bar/23 24/18		13/7*/2*
bar/23* bar/22		bar/15
23/18 22/20*		bar/20 13/7*
bar/22 20/18*		bar/23 24/20
22/18 13/8		15/11 8/5

gnubg	175
tchow	145
Position ID: 0GdkwCjg88HBAA Match ID: cAkTACAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/2* 6/2	+0.281
			0.564 0.187 0.007 - 0.436 0.109 0.005 +0.208 +0.281 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839863820 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	18/14* 8/2*	+0.279 ( -0.003)
			0.558 0.201 0.011 - 0.442 0.114 0.005 +0.209 +0.279 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839863820 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	18/14*/8	+0.205 ( -0.076)
			0.545 0.182 0.009 - 0.455 0.111 0.004 +0.165 +0.205 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839863820 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money game: Blue to play 6-4
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 11:41 p.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 6-4
    neilkaz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 11:50 p.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 6-4
    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 12:46 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 6-4
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 8:31 a.m.
  • OTB and short rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 3:08 p.m.
    • 54S-62H-62R-65K-32>-64R-52U-65H-32H-42@-54T-43%-64
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 7:07 p.m.