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New GV article

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: New GV article (Matt Cohn-Geier)

True, but common sense would suggest a few other points: 1) that the bot's eval in this specific position is very good [with or without a variance reduced rollout]; 2) I don't know if you want to call it a Bayesian perspective but I'm more or less 110% certain of the answer here since it can more or less be calculated without a bot; 3) When you have over 44 JSDs and a standard deviation of .0008 after 108 games it probably isn't going to change.

Ahem... common sense (even among backgammon players) probably hasn't ever heard these words, let alone understand them.

  • evaluation
  • variance
  • variance reduction
  • Bayesian
  • standard deviation
  • joint standard deviation

If you're unconvinced, let me point out that I had the following exchange with a COLLEGE student just the other day:

Me: OK, let's say each compounding period is three months, and the life of the loan is three years. How many compounding periods are in the life of the loan?

College Student: Nine?

Me: How did you get nine?

College Student: I multiplied together the three and the three.

Me: Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Final lesson: Just roll it out 1296 times.

JLee

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