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BGonline.org Forums
Midpoint fetish redux (or: another 61)
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Midpoint fetish redux (or: another 61) (Matt Ryder)
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 9:19 a.m.
Thanks, Sam.
I initially skipped over this problem because running with the 61 from White's side looked so massively correct that I didn't see the point of adding to other's posts. Now that you've alerted me it is Black on roll, this position seems at least worthy of comment.
Hitting is definitely out: it just plays into the little strength White has -- more points in her inner board. So, the ace covers the 3pt.
You'll be in a great equity situation whichever 6 you play, but coming down looks clear to me, leaving only one blot and keeping the 24pt anchor for a while.
After 13/7, Black can lose by (a) cracking first or (b) White rolls 61, is missed and brings it home from there, or (c) White rolls two aces and a 6 while Black fans. However, the combination of those unlikely losses seems smaller to me than the losses after 24/18, when Black gets hit somewhere, fans, gets hit again and White uses the tempi to escape, and that's without even considering the extra gammons lost.
Finding the right play in this position is not about assessing the value of the midpoint. It is about minimizing White's use of her four-point board as a means of turning around a terrible game.
Nack
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