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Pay dat man his money

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 3:33 p.m.

In Response To: Pay dat man his money (Stick)

Lets say that blue pays later and things go reasonably well for him so that he is able to wait until white's midpoint has been cleared and is able to then clear one checker from the midpoint home, only leaving 6 indirects. But what is the real chance of that blot making it home safely? There are repeaters about a third of the time where it is missed but can't clear and is forced to stay another turn. Or blue may be forced to leave a direct shot by rolling 44 or 26. All totaled, I'd estimate that the 6 initial indirect shots expand to an equivalent of about 9 shots. This is within reach of the 12 shots left by volunteering. So what if things don't go well for blue? If blue is forced to leave a shot on the mid before white clears the mid, it will be 17 shots (more for 62). Then there are repeaters again, sometimes direct, sometimes indirect, so lets say it effectively goes up to 21. Lets say blue is forced to leave a direct 1/3 of the time and an indirect the other 2/3. Average is 9*2+21=39/3 = 13. So with rough guesses, it seems like pay-now leaves 12 shots and pay-later leaves 13. Close, but small edge to paying now.

13/8 13/9

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