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Double 3s

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 7:53 p.m.

In Response To: Double 3s (Stick)

Clear the 16pt, then either make the 10pt or bring one down to the 7pt. Any value in having the 10pt as a landing spot (an aid to clear the midpoint) is more than offset by the problem in clearing the 10pt later (due to the glaring hole on the 5pt); if safety were the only issue then 13/7 has to be right. But it's not the only issue. The 10pt helps contain White, not just to block double 6s over the next some rolls but to help attack the single blot left behind if White catches up or overtakes in the race and runs later.

The choice of 13/10(2) and 13/7 is dictated purely by the race. Blue is up 16 pips after the roll, 12 when adjusted by White's half-roll. That lead doesn't look big enough to discount the value of containment, so I would make the 10pt.

If Blue were leading by another 10 pips (e.g., give White her 7pt instead of her 2pt), then I'd go with 16/13 16/7. I would guess that somewhere between a 5- and 10-pip adjustment is the breakeven point.

Nack

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