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New GV article

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 9:07 p.m.

In Response To: New GV article (Bob Koca)

In your hard look under the hood what did you find troubling about the independence assumption?

My current belief is that the biggest factor affecting independence (or lack thereof) is transposition, i.e., different sequences of rolls/plays that produce the same position (or at least similar positions, that have a good chance of transposing into each other down the line). I haven't done any calculations to estimate the size of this effect, but my intuition is that in "quiet" positions, the transposition effect could be substantial, leading one to overestimate the accuracy of one's estimates.

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