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Rollout - My 5-1

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 1 December 2006, at 5:38 a.m.

In Response To: Moves leading up to today's OLM (Stick)

Though not stat. sig. yet it does give me a good idea of what I already knew. Snowie doesn't like my play, but she doesn't hate it either =) The gammons lost w/my play are far too much even though my play wins a full 2% more games and 1.x % more gammons itself. As I said before...I still prefer my play, I'm more comfortable with it.


Match to 25, Blue leads 2 to 0
158
141
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/23 13/8 -0.397
0.4% 9.9% 38.9% 61.1% 14.6% 0.8%
Live cube rollout: -0.419
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.272 ±0.012, - live cube: -0.419 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 38843 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/8 6/5 -0.412 (-0.014)
0.5% 11.1% 40.9% 59.1% 22.7% 1.9%
Live cube rollout: -0.426
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.312 ±0.013, - live cube: -0.426 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41123 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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