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Double 3s

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 17 December 2009, at 2:46 a.m.

In Response To: Double 3s (Nack Ballard)

Nack: ...That lead doesn't look big enough to discount the value of containment...

I read this with interest. It is certainly not a new concept to me, but you write as if you have quantifiable 'rules' to this. At what pip/percentage lead do you consider containment to be something to be avoided?

This is a straight 5pt holding game, IMO, just roll home the 16 pip lead, and enjoy not leaving a shot. But when do you want to contain, and when do you not want to contain your opponent? Obviously there are significant differences between creating a 6-away hold and a 4-away hold, there are also the gaps in the holding prime to consider too. Do you have some way to judge this, or do you play from experience?

I am very curious as to any kind of simple formulaic answer here - so that I can think to myself over the board - I have a 12% race lead (above xxx value), therefore I do not seek to promote a holding game, or I have only a 10% lead, I should be aiming to create a 4pt hold here, as my ideal source of containment.

At present, I use a judgement call based almost entirely on score and pipcount. My intuition is normally very good, but theres almost a symmetry between intuition and superstition. The gut feel I have to use, and the more firm rules I can apply, the better I feel about how to approach this particularly common situation. From both an offensive and defensive side.

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