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BGonline.org Forums
Double 3s
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: Double 3s (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 17 December 2009, at 2:56 a.m.
I think the plays are close if your opponent does not roll 6-6 over the next few rolls, with 13,7 being a small preference. The advantage of 13,7, over the next few rolls, is many of your small rolls make the 5 pt., your big rolls are good for the race, and, after you clear the third checker from the mid, some of your in between rolls, 5-2 and 6-2, let you clear it and prepare to make the 5. 10-10, only has one huge advantage, it blocks 6-6 for now and until you clear it, which should not be too difficult, but no lock to do without leaving a shot. If I knew my opponent would not roll 6-6 over the next few rolls, I think 13,7 would be the choice.
I think the problem basically boils down to how often your opponent will get a chance to roll 6-6 and what does it cost you when he does. He will usually get two to six rolls to get a 6-6 with the average probably being ~ 3.5, since on occasion he will be cubed out after two or three rolls many times and a few times he will roll an escaping double 5 first. If we call it 3.5 rolls, his chances of not getting a 6-6 are (35/36)^3.5 or ~ 91%. 9% he will roll a 6-6 in 3.5 rolls. What is the equity swing when that occurs? You were up 14 pips after your 3-3. A 6-6 by him would put him up 10 with you on roll and probably leave him ~60% to win the game. With the blocking play, you are ~60% after his 6-6. So the swing on plays when this occurs is ~40% of 9% or 3.6%. I don't think you can make up for this with the gains form 13,7. 10,10 is my play.
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