| |
BGonline.org Forums
Test OLM We 12/16/09
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: Test OLM We 12/16/09 (Jason Lee)
Date: Thursday, 17 December 2009, at 9:17 a.m.
This is a pretty simple problem. The gain from preserving a 6 is very, very small. You will lose about 11% of the time and win about 9% on the next three rolls because you did not save a six. If you had saved a six, you probably would win close to 9.5, instead of 9, of those 20 games. You pick up about 1.4 % extra wins from preserving a six. What is the cost of those wins. You will hit a direct/indirect shot ~ 4.8% on your next roll. There is a huge difference, after hitting, between having a four point board with possibly a blot in it and and a five point board with no blot. As a matter of fact you are better of not hitting, in most cases, with the four point board, and you will win about 45% on the 4.8% potential hits. 55%-45% leaves you with 10% negative equity = -.48%. On the other hand hitting with a five point board and no blot wins the 70% of the time he dances, gets gammoned some, the ~ 11% of the time he hits, and is near a wash on the other 19%. Your net win may be ~ (79.5-(23.5, including his g equity)=56% versus -10% with the weaker board. The gain is ~66% of 4.8% hits or ~3.2% from not saving the 6 and keeping the stronger board. Since the gain of 3.2% is greater than the loss of 1.4%, 8-4, 5-2 is my play.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.