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ELO distribution

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 17 December 2009, at 3:54 p.m.

In Response To: ELO distribution (Jason Lee)

And for what it is worth, I doubt the skill distribution will be normal in these tournaments.

First of all, the general playing populations are not represented. People who show up at tournaments are by nature atypical of the population. The best players are more likely to be regular attendees than others. The fact that the Open division frequently has more players than the Intermediate division tells you that this does not represent the general population.

Secondly, skill divisions tend to also skew the distributions in any one event since the players in the event will be more comparable to one another in skill than in the general population. And even if the overall population is normally distributed, the divisions will tend to represent different sections of the normal curve with the sandbaggers/optimists divided up at the borders.

Also, there is an upper limit on skill with diminishing returns. So you're not going to get a typical tail in the distribution, but rather a slope followed by a cliff.

So you'll probably want to run a variety of distributions (all equal, random, linear, normal, etc) and see what actually matters.

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