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Money game: Blue to move 61

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 18 December 2009, at 2:03 a.m.

In Response To: Money game: Blue to move 61 (Timothy Chow)

It's either stack em up with 13/6 or unstack the 6 leaving a double shot and 23 hitting numbers. The safe/bold criteria suggest safe, but could this be an exception? I kind of doubt it. Being hit probably costs you around 15% gammon-adjusted winning chances and 15%*23 is 345%. Do you gain more than 345% on the 13 non-hitters? I don't think so. D5 and D6 which put you on the bar vs. a 3 or 4-pt board so you need to make the bulk of this 345% on the other 11 non-hitters. That's > 30% per roll and I don't think you gain that much. So I'll somewhat reluctantly go with 13/6.

Messages In This Thread

• Money game: Blue to move 61
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 1:25 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to move 61
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 2:03 a.m.
    • Money game: Blue to move 61
      neilkaz -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 3:12 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to move 61
    Seth -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 3:51 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to move 61
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 5:41 p.m.
  • 65R-64P-61P-52S-61
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 18 December 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 December 2009, at 2:40 a.m.