| |
BGonline.org Forums
Double 3s
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Double 3s (Keene)
Date: Friday, 18 December 2009, at 6:49 p.m.
Several years ago, I had compiled an enormous number of cube reference positions for simple holding games (size of lead and depending upon which points to break, and builder distributions) that I had intended to make into a book. I lost everything in a computer crash (couldn't recover the data), though I doubt it would have been finished anyway because I got swept away with opening projects.
In comparing cube value for positions, I learned which formations (and when) were safer and which were stronger (the two concepts often in conflict) for bearing in. I had not yet developed rules and formulae, but I guess you can say I developed a pretty good sense of tradeoffs.
In this position, I was (and am) sure that 16/13 16/7 is the safest way to bear in. The 10pt helps 63 53 to clear the mid, but with the 5pt open the 10pt will be difficult to clear later in any event. That is, purely from a safety point of view, the tradeoff is definitely in favor of not making the 10pt. There were at least a couple of posters that either believed the opposite or exaggerated the landing-spot value of the 10pt.
When listing the assets of owning the 10pt, one must not count 65 and 62 because they already clear the midpoint, and the value of 32 should be heavily discounted because with the other play you will often still have the 8pt and 7pt spares with which to make the 5pt with 32. Moreover, the value of making the 5pt with 21 (with the 7pt spare you have if you don't make the 10pt) partially offsets the value of 63 53.
Another factor is that a significant percentage of the time you will outtime your opponent and keep the midpoint longer than he will. In such cases, you can simply run one of the two checkers to safety (or hit with an ace if Opp has chosen to leave one checker behind on her mid), and the only safey benefit to owning the toxic 10pt will be that Opp's 63 is blocked from hitting, and that 21 can safety the straggler without leaving a repeat indirect (31 and 11 you'll probably use to make your 5pt).
The closer the race, the more useful the 10pt, in order to block 66 for a few rolls and so that you can switch into containment/attack mode if the opponent simply outpips you and gradually pulls ahead. The more lopsided the race in your favor, the more you want to avoid making the 10pt, but for that to mentally register you have to understand to begin with that making the 10pt is a liability rather than an asset purely from the bearin/safety standpoint. Then my original comments and Stick's alternative-race rollout results backing them up make sense.
Hope that helps.
Nack
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.