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Bot backgame comparison Redux

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 19 December 2009, at 3:45 a.m.

In Response To: Bot backgame comparison Redux (Timothy Chow)

What is wrong with this reasoning?

Nothing, really. Perhaps I'm a bit less optimistic than you that Blue will crash badly with no more checkers sent back, and a bit more optimistic that Blue will crash with more checkers sent back. I'm not seeing that enticing White to hit blots is a equity gaining plan for Blue. And, since Blue only has 4 back now, and if it's true that if Blue will crash with more sent back, then that should gain White a few more gammons and backgammon. I might not -- perhaps probably not -- hit 6 more blots. But my feeling is that it's quite likely that if White were to hit 3 or 4 more, the other 8 or 7 un-hit blots will end up on Blue's ace/deuce points, while White sits for a very long time on his six prime.

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