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Strongest Current Rollout Settings Are ... ?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 19 December 2009, at 10:04 p.m.

In Response To: Strongest Current Rollout Settings Are ... ? (Stick)

Based on Neil's estimate that 5-ply takes 15 times longer than 4-ply, I recommend you settle for 4-ply unless you're committed to running 5-ply long enough to accumulate 31k+ trials.

I would put more stock in a 3-ply rollout of 62k trials than a 5-ply rollout of 10k trials, due to variance, though having both is better. But a 4-ply rollout of 31k to 46k would be better yet and would take a fraction of the time.

After you finish the 4-ply rollouts (so at least everyone can see them sooner), you can still roll 5-ply for selective positions and plays if at that point you feel that the 15x CPU expenditure will be worthwhile.

By the time computers are fast enough to make 5-ply rollouts practical, Xavier will probably have reached the point that XGR+ rollouts (and who knows what else) will be doable.

Nack

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