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3 pt match...time for an Atlanta Double?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 19 December 2009, at 10:53 p.m.

In Response To: 3 pt match...time for an Atlanta Double? (neilkaz)

The basic 2-cube takepoint at 3a-3a is 30%, the gammon price is 50%, and your 4-cube takepoint is 25%. I would give your side around 15% net g's which raises the basic takepoint to 37 1/2%. Cube vig (assuming 70% efficiency) is 70%*37.5%*25% which is ~ 6.5% so Black needs around 31% cubeless chances to take. Black's chances look to be at least 35% so it's a take. Nonetheless I think it is correct to double here. All doubles but 6s plus 31 most likely lose the mkt by quite a bit and D6,64,53, or 42 could also do the trick if Black responds with a bad number. Looks like enough mkt losers to me.

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