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BGonline.org Forums
Money game: Blue to play 53
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Money game: Blue to play 53 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 3:09 a.m.
I find myself torn between three choices: Making the outfield anchor with @ (anchor, 21/16 13/10), running the front checker with d (down, 16/11 13/10), and standing pat with D (Down, 13/10 13/8).
In a less lopsided race (even trailing just 3+ fewer pips), I'd play @ without hesitation. As it is, Blue is down 13 pips after the roll and White has only the 13pt and 11pt to clear. Surely, either d or D will generate better winning chances, even with White's two or four safe hit-and-cover rolls. Without such a roll, White has to play more awkwardly, wasting potential pips while Blue plays smoothly on his own side.
OTOH, the d and D plays get gammoned a lot more than @ (which almost never gets gammoned). If White is alert, she will double whatever play Blue makes, releasing gammons, so d and D won't get off the hook due to Jacoby. It's hard to assess the tradeoff between extra wins and lost gammons.
The main advantage of standing pat with D is the option of anchoring with a 5 next roll: Blue often should if he gains at least a couple of pips in the exchange. The disadvantage, however, is that White will hit and cover with 62 22 -- that looks bigger to me. So, in a direct comparison, I'll pick d over D.
Not knowing which of @ and d is better, I would play d (down, 16/11 13/10) for two practical reasons: (a) It seems more likely Opp will wait to double, and (b) it is more likely Opp will misplay her rolls -- I'm not sure how to play all of them myself. As Blue, I rate to pick up a non-trivial amount of equity from these two categories of errors that do not exist after @ (where the position is too easy to understand).
Nack
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