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BGonline.org Forums
63 should i stay or should i go now...and how
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 63 should i stay or should i go now...and how (Adam Versaw)
Date: Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 1:57 a.m.
I definitely prefer to cover the 4pt. I'm inclined to think it wins slightly fewer games than 16/13 16/10 (which I'd switch to at DMP), but closing the board will win more gammons, and despite the exposure to three extra 3 shots (indirects 31 11, which note leave four blots) 16/10 7/4 probably net saves more gammons as well because it prevents White from coming back with the 4 hits from the roof (though that's the smaller factor).
There's no way I'd play a 6 safely to the ace point here unless White's 3pt were covered. The game variation is a good illustration of why there's so little value in saving a 6 to begin with.
From the last diagram, it appears that you played 43 by saving a 6 then rolled double 1s and 31, and in the meantime White rolled 53 then 63 (or 54) and another 63. Assuming that White played the 53 right (16/13 6/1 to take advantage of your blotty 43 play, rather than double slotting his board at that point), I think he should have brought the last 63 into the 4pt (13/4) instead of 13/7 6/3. This is yet another example of wrongly saving 6s and you can see White's punishment: he both hurt his race and created a second blot without a guarantee of no immediate contact. Perhaps he assumed that because you left a 6 outside that you wouldn't be running now with a roll like 63, but even if he guesses correctly I think his 63 play has cost him.
Nack
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