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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Re: Is this obvious?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Re: Is this obvious? (Chase)
Date: Sunday, 20 May 2007, at 11:11 p.m.
I agree with Chase and 6/1. That stops Blue from running one checker with the big fours 4-4 and 4-5, and prevents him from running both checkers 22/16 22/18 instead of 22/12 with 64. With the smaller fours Blue doesn't have to run. Not running with 41 looks obvious, with 42 and 43 looks like a close decision. I think I'd stay with both of those rolls. I think 6/1 is better if Blue keeps the anchor, as he also will with any other no-4 no-6 roll. White might then get to hold his prime for yet another roll while filling in the acepoint, or make the ace with a 6, breaking the bar point, or clear the 7 or 8 points. I think these sequences improve White's winning chances, compared to stacking more checkers on the higher points now.
The other play to consider is 7/5 7/4, not 8/6 8/5. White's board is top-heavy. The race is not totally won. White doesn't want to pile more checkers on the 6 and 5 points.
After either 6/1 or 7/5 7/4, Blue's 6-X rolls escape. Let's look at 65 63 62 61. After 7/5 7/4 White points with 16/36 numbers. After 6/1 White has 4 builders for the 3 point but can't use all the combinations with 4s because it's too dangerous to break the bar with a blot on the acepoint (but he can play 42 7/3*/1). On the other hand his combinations of 2s 3s and 5s making the 3 point should turn out very well (and better than pointing after 7/5 7/4), because either White will make a 6 point board immediately, or Blue will hit on the acepoint, crack completely and perhaps expose another blot.
So, 6/1 looks clearly better if Blue rolls 45 44 or 46; a little better if Blue rolls 66 65 63 62 61 (I think the chances of completing a 6 prime or getting a second blot after 6/1 outweigh the extra building numbers after 7/5 7/4, but perhaps not); and a little better if Blue keeps his anchor.
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