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Cube Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 1 December 2006, at 10:05 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. Nov. 30th - Cube Action (Stick)

Notice your win % is almost 74%! Add to that you winning 1.7% more gammons to me and your position is obviously solid, so why no cube? As everyone noted, the 5th checker on the midpoint means you can't clear it and thus there are very few market losing sequences. The position isn't volatile enough, you'll most likely walk into a nice cube here in a turn or two.


Match to 25, Blue leads 2 to 0
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
142
127
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.494
0.1% 3.5% 73.8% 26.2% 1.8% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.494 ±0.009, - live cube no double: 0.849 ±0.018, - live cube double take: 0.828 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 43152 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0.803
2. Double, take 0.796 (-0.007)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.197)
Proper cube action: No double, take3%
Live cube
1. No double 0.849
2. Double, take 0.828 (-0.020)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.151)
Proper cube action: No double, take12%

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional Edition Version 4.5, a product of SnowieGroup SA Output date: 5:04:51 AM, 12/1/2006(Export v2.10)

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