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BGonline.org Forums
What is the wrong concept?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: What is the wrong concept? (Jason Lee)
Date: Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 8:16 p.m.
8/4 7/4 is the play you want to make sure you see and then reject.
13/9 (or 13/10, take your pick) is pretty much forced. After that what's your best 3? 9/6 or 13/10?
13/10 leaves 4 more shots: 35 36. As Rich points out those would have flown away anyway but now they do it with a hit which cuts down a lot on your returns from the roof...you'll have only about 5-12 numbers instead of the 4s & 9s or whatever you would have had. These plays work better when White has a blot in his board and hitting a fly shot guarantees you a large number of return shots (say 17+ at 2 blots). It is worth noting that 13/9 13/10 give a lot more roof returns when White hits the 8pt blot. So it is not actually giving up all that much in terms of shot numbers.
Since you are significantly behind in the race, so you need to take some chances to build either the 4 point or the 8 point before White flies away. The cost of the extra shots is not too high here. Yeah, getting hit is bad, but it isn't the end of the world. And once you make another point you can use the cube to your advantage...but not before.
Anyway, move White's ace point back to the 5 point, improving her board and shortening the distance of the race lead, and 13/6 is not so bad, although 13/9 13/10 is still better.
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