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To pt or not to pt?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 10:53 p.m.

In Response To: To pt or not to pt? (TheProdigy)

Pointing on the 1pt looks right for money scores, for the gammon threat.

However, at this DMP-ish score (-1-3C), playing purely looks better. Both 11/7 5/2* and 11/7 9/6 are pure. Blue should not stack with 9/5, which narrows down half the move: he should play 11/7 with the 4 and consider the 3.

If Blue hits on the 2pt (as opposed to lifting with 9/6), White will make a five-point board with only 4 numbers (22 21 11) instead of 8 numbers (62 61 22 21 11). Moreover, White fans with 66 65 64 instead of running a checker to safety -- that's a huge swing on 5 numbers. And there is a substantial gain on the other 4 fans (55 54 44). Also, only 53 leaps vs. 52 51. Finally, 43 41 play a bit worse for White from the roof.

OTOH, hitting gives White 16 numbers with which she is happy to hit (including 31 -- hitting is surely better than covering the 2pt). Getting hit mainly reduces Blue's wins, though there's also a small cost in losing more gammons (loss of free drop) and more bg's (loss of match).

I'll go with 11/7 5/2* over 11/7 9/6, though without much conviction. (In truth, I'm not even sure pointing on the ace point isn't best at this score as well.)

Tricky problem; thanks.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• To pt or not to pt?
  TheProdigy -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 9:05 p.m.
  • To pt or not to pt?
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 10:53 p.m.
  • To pt or not to pt?
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 11:09 p.m.