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43D-55P-11

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 28 December 2009, at 6:38 a.m.

In Response To: 43D-55P-11 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Splitting with an ace is gross. Making the 9 pt isn't so bad in itself if it doesn't have to go along with splitting. I would guess that 5(3) is the second best play in this position.

Yup. Splitting is probably not even third best. Averaging Snowie's and Gnu's rollouts yields [N F20 n48 M54], where n is 10/9 8/7 6/5(2), and M is "splitting" (Mayfair Split) 24/23 10/9 6/5(2). I asked for a show of hands at the Nordic lecture: As I recall, the clear majority of people picked M (in spite of suspecting QF) and only a small handful picked N.

...making the bar gives White a horrendous 65 and 66.

Also a repeat 55 is worsened. Somewhere I have the money cube decisions against all White rolls (following Blue's 11N) that are neither small doubles nor hit. It has been a long time since I've looked, but I think those three largest rolls yield passes.

Nack

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