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OTB & Rollout

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 4:54 a.m.

In Response To: 64S-32 at 4a1aC (David Rockwell)

I played the thematic 64S-32H (6-1*) here. (52X & 54X / hit and split are both correct at any score.) I thought that the hitting play had more flexibility than S (Split 24-21, 13-11) and would play better than a static application of the gammon values ATS would imply. This logic was backwards. Both S and "5" (5 point / 13-11, 8-5) play particularly strong at this score as does $ (13-11, 6-4). Note the incremental wins in this rollout versus Stick's money rollout. H turned out to be the least flexible of the top five choices.

The score (after 0 games) is: GNU_bg 4, user 1 (match to 5 points, Crawford game)

Move number 2: user to play 32

GNU_bg	157
user	167
Position ID: 4HPhQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: 8ImpAEAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/21 13/11	-0.0026
			0.4442 0.1066 0.0058 - 0.5558 0.2404 0.0438 -0.0026 -0.0026 0.0008 0.0007 0.0003 - 0.0008 0.0025 0.0015 0.0019 0.0019
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/11 8/5	-0.0062 ( -0.0036)
			0.4382 0.1148 0.0057 - 0.5618 0.2547 0.0563 -0.0062 -0.0062 0.0010 0.0008 0.0004 - 0.0010 0.0026 0.0017 0.0023 0.0023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/1*	-0.0086 ( -0.0060)
			0.4359 0.1171 0.0042 - 0.5641 0.2533 0.0543 -0.0086 -0.0086 0.0011 0.0007 0.0003 - 0.0011 0.0027 0.0019 0.0025 0.0025
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/10 6/4	-0.0088 ( -0.0063)
			0.4393 0.1100 0.0056 - 0.5607 0.2550 0.0628 -0.0088 -0.0088 0.0011 0.0007 0.0004 - 0.0011 0.0025 0.0019 0.0024 0.0024
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/22 13/10	-0.0167 ( -0.0142)
			0.4368 0.1072 0.0052 - 0.5632 0.2554 0.0464 -0.0167 -0.0167 0.0012 0.0010 0.0005 - 0.0012 0.0036 0.0022 0.0027 0.0027
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 64S-32 at 4a1aC
  David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 4:46 a.m.
  • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
    Stick -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 5:27 a.m.
    • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 6:09 a.m.
      • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
        neilkaz -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 6:14 p.m.
      • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 10:30 p.m.
        • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
          David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 11:04 p.m.
          • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 12:07 a.m.
  • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
    Mark Donaldson -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 6:59 a.m.
  • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 5:52 p.m.
    • 64S-32 at 4a1aC
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 6:19 p.m.
      • confused again
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 9:08 p.m.
        • GG rollout
          David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 9:29 p.m.
          • DMP rollout
            David Rockwell -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 9:32 p.m.
          • GG rollout
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 8:24 a.m.
            • GG rollout
              David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 3:14 p.m.
  • OTB & Rollout
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 4:54 a.m.