Posting this before I pack up and take off though not stat. sig. yet. I've been trying cubeful rollouts even though they take twice as many games I feel more comfortable (for some reason) with their results. Another one I'll try to extend when I get the time. It seems since you have a 17 pip lead after roll and you have left your back man stranded you should try to reconnect him before I get any more of a forward position rolling. You do leave a double shot but it's the absolute minimum (20). If missed you'll find safety fairly easy next turn. Unstacking the mid. would be nice but with my back men split and again, your lead in the race, you leave too many shots for me to equalize/take the lead in the game by hitting. Make a break for it now while if you're hit it's not the end of the world.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 24/15 | 0.131 | |
| 0.7% 11.1% 55.1% 44.9% 12.9% 0.5% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0.171 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.088 ±0.010, - live cube: 0.171 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 57272 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 13/8 13/9 | 0.112 (-0.019) | |
| 0.7% 15.4% 53.0% 47.0% 13.2% 0.5% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0.134 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.083 ±0.010, - live cube: 0.134 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 56226 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 13/4 | 0.094 (-0.037) | |
| 0.7% 14.8% 52.6% 47.4% 13.3% 0.5% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0.114 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.068 ±0.018, - live cube: 0.114 ±0.033. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 20334 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||