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You want fries with that Whopper?

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 4 January 2010, at 4:20 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

I didn't get around to posting my play here as too much TV sports and then a another Blackhawk win in the city. Anyhow, I was lifting also since we can cube anything that is thrown from the bar...even 11 I think.

The reason ur going to BK for lunch (I should insist that you drag your lazy ass outta bed for breakfask, but I'm not that mean) is that you posted a RO with an emg way above 1 when a G can't be won and without saying anything about that rediculous emg.

When the equity is above 1 and u can't win a G, Red FLAGS wave in your face telling you that the bot is making many bad takes later.

Here's a quick 4 ply RO and note that there still are some bad takes happening in all variations but far less than is using 3 ply. 100% confidence from XG and our analysis is adequate to convince me to use my CPU for something else overnight.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 42
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 140
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBBAB--------AA--AdcaA:1:1:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
to play 13

1.Rollout1Bar/24* 7/4eq: +1.019
Player:
Opponent:
82.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.39% (G:4.59% B:0.33%)
Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.996...+1.042)
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 21/18eq: +0.966 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
81.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.52% (G:4.98% B:0.36%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.947...+0.985)
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout2Bar/24* 24/21eq: +0.963 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
81.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.58% (G:4.78% B:0.28%)
Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.943...+0.983)
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout3Bar/24* 18/15eq: +0.949 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
81.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.44% (G:4.82% B:0.43%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.932...+0.966)
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/24* 17/14eq: +0.947 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
81.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.41% (G:4.78% B:0.47%)
Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.927...+0.967)
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
1 326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

2 327 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

3 328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11

In this case XG 3 ply will be buying lunch for everyone at BK as it is taking huge passes later. Bot fans can note that while I haven't checked GNU here, it also usually has issues in these position-types when you have a good number of checkers off, but get two hit.

XG 4 ply cube is far from perfect here but it is way better than 3 ply.

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