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Tokyo Permabox #5 - 31

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 4 January 2010, at 7:17 p.m.

In Response To: Tokyo Permabox #5 - 31 (Stick)

IMO, only two plays are worth considering: 22 5* and 24 4*. The latter looks more natural, but the spare distribution doesn’t much matter if you’re hit, and even if you’re missed it matters less than usual with ammo in short supply. This problem mostly comes down to counting shots and their effects, and accounting for the fact that if White is missed her position is better on both sides: 5pt slotted instead of 4pt, and back checker better placed on 22pt than on 24pt.

After 22 5*, White is hit by 20 numbers (of which 5 hit twice and 1 thrice) on the 5pt, 3 on the 14pt, 3 on the 22pt, and 10 numbers miss (9 sixes plus double 4s).

After 24 4*, White is hit by 15 numbers (of which 5 hit twice) on the 4pt, 11 on the 14pt, 1 on the 24pt, and 9 numbers miss.

To shed the 24pt category, say double 3s washes. To shed the rest of the 22pt category, say getting hit there with 2 numbers (43) on the 22pt is as bad as getting hit on the 5pt, and to compensate for that untruth I think it’s fair to move 4 of the other’s 14pt hits into the 4pt-hit category. That leaves three categories: (1) 5pt/4pt is hit , (2) 14pt is hit, and (3) miss, and the breakdown comparison is 22-3-10 versus 19-7-9. (These sum to 35 instead of 36 because double 3s is gone.)

Even with her two-on-7pt spare placement, the 9 misses are better for White with her 5pt slotted (and Black behind it) than with her 4pt slotted (and Black in front of it), plus there is 22pt vs 24pt back checker vig. I’ll wash 6 of the 9 miss differences against how much worse the double 5s return is after 22 5*. That reduces the breakdown to 22-3-4 versus 19-7-3. Cancelling out equally in the first two categories, that leaves 3-0-4 versus 0-4-3.

I think the difference between the two positions after the 3 misses is at least as great as the difference between the (3 each) 5pt/4pt hits vs the 14pt hits, and even if those differences are washed, that leaves the 22 5* play 1 miss to the good. So, I choose 22 5*.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Tokyo Permabox #5 - 31
  Stick -- Monday, 4 January 2010, at 1:37 a.m.
  • Tokyo Permabox #5 - 31
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 4 January 2010, at 3:16 a.m.
  • Tokyo Permabox #5 - 31
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 4 January 2010, at 7:17 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 1:53 a.m.