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LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 1:25 a.m.

In Response To: LA vs. the MFIC #1 (Jason Lee)

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 178
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-bAbB-D-BA--dB---a-b-bbAAA:0:0:-1:00:4:1:0:7:8
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.97% (G: 29.57% B: 3.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.03% (G: 11.75% B: 2.07%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.30% (G: 30.34% B: 3.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.70% (G: 12.62% B: 3.86%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.429
Double:+1.187
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.840 (-0.160)
Double/Take:+1.087 (+0.087)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1297 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.021 (+0.819...+0.861)
Confidence Double: ± 0.036 (+1.051...+1.123)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 07 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

I surmised (correctly, it seems) that all my flotsam and jetsam leads to too many gammons. steamsax told me he thought it was a take, so I posted this only to show how brilliant I am. So there.

JLee

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