BGonline.org Forums

LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout) (Stick)

Stick: If you make [Blue] -4 or more I would take.

This short rollout agrees.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 1, Blue 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 4: White on roll, cube decision?

White	178
Blue	157
Position ID: Ms/CAFRsJngAMw Match ID: MAHgABAAGAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4514	(Money: +0.4195)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7815
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2185
3.	No double	+0.6656	-0.1160
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6129 0.2980 0.0422 - 0.3871 0.1236 0.0228 +0.4514 +0.6656 Standard error 0.0079 0.0057 0.0036 - 0.0079 0.0049 0.0084 0.0221 0.0546 Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.6082 0.2991 0.0387 - 0.3918 0.1151 0.0540 +1.0164 +0.7815 Standard error 0.0124 0.0130 0.0119 - 0.0124 0.0076 0.0183 0.1115 0.1198
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
92 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 846087032 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

I'd do a longer rollout if the question were Double or No Double. But it's long enough to show that at -6 -4, it's not a Pass.

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4486 (Money: +0.4444)
0.6219 0.2994 0.0363 - 0.3781 0.1258 0.0092
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9019
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0981)
3. No double +0.7553 ( -0.1466)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.5424 (Money: +0.5335)
0.6500 0.3256 0.0399 - 0.3500 0.1226 0.0094
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.1380 ( +0.1380)
3. No double +0.8399 ( -0.1601)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.4565 (Money: +0.4511)
0.6207 0.3045 0.0394 - 0.3793 0.1249 0.0093
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9262
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0738)
3. No double +0.7657 ( -0.1604)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• LA vs. the MFIC #1
  Jason Lee -- Monday, 4 January 2010, at 5:46 a.m.
  • LA vs. the MFIC #1
    MandM1951 -- Monday, 4 January 2010, at 9:25 p.m.
  • LA vs. the MFIC #1
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 12:57 a.m.
  • LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 1:25 a.m.
    • LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)
      Stick -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 4:06 a.m.
      • LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)
        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 5:02 a.m.
      • LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 3:13 p.m.
      • LA vs. the MFIC #1 (XG rollout)
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 5:56 a.m.