| 21$-65R-54P-31U, 54 or 63 | 153 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue to play 54 or 63 | 155 |
Position ID: g3PkATDgc/ADBA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA | |
Your position (above), 21$-65R-54P-31U-54 looks similar to 21$-65R-52P-21U-54 that I looked at once, shown below. The difference is that Black owns his 3pt instead of 1pt, and his 8pt spare is stacked on the 6pt.
In the 3pt position, H (Hit, 13/4*) is a blowout over S (Split, 24/20 13/8). The splitting candidates of both positions reach a three-on-8pt four-on-6pt distribution, so the only difference (other than the minor one of 3pt vs 1pt) is that White has a 7 shot. That's substantial but I doubt it's enough to reverse a blowout lead, so I'll go with H (Hit, 13/4*) in your position, too.
As a sidelight, the other situation I had looked at with the one below (first, actually) was 21$-65R-52P-21U-63 (same position, different roll). H (Hit, 13/4*) is better than P (make 5pt), but it was close enough to do a trunc rollout at the time -- differnce of maybe .03 or .04.
I assume, with 21$-65R-54P-31U-63 (your position, different roll), it's better to make the 5pt because of the distribution -- mainly it doesn't leave a 4 shot!
That takes care of a little 2 x 2 box:
21$-65R-54P-31U-54 (H, I think) ... 21$-65R-54P-31U-63 (H by a lot?)
21$-65R-52P-21U-54 (H by a lot)... 21$-65R-52P-21U-63 (P, clear)
Nack
| 21$-65R-52P-21U, 54 or 63 | 153 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue to play 54 or 63 | 157 |
Position ID: jGfkATDgc/ADBA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA | |
