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Bearoff 8 cube

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 8 January 2010, at 1:39 a.m.

In Response To: Bearoff 8 cube (Jason Lee)

Pip counts are the same. Wastage looks quite close to the same. Generally that indicates a recube and probably a take (for money) but let me look a bit further.

Trice's rule of 62 gives 19-5 = 14 / 7 = 2 pips down for point of last take for money. What's your takepoint on an 8 cube at this score?

Pass for -5, -8 = 69.5% reversed = 30.5%
Take and win for the match = 100%
Take and lose for Crawford, -8 = 6%

Risk = 24.5%, gain = 69.5%, risk / risk + gain = 24.5 / 94.

Usually here I would estimate what 24.5 / 94 is but this looks like a pretty close decision and match-critical so I might as well calculate it exactly.

24.5 / 94 = 12.25 / 47 = 12.25 / 47 x 2.13 / 2.13 = 12.25 x 2.13 / ~100 = 24.5 + 12.25 x .13 = 26% or so.

That was probably pretty complicated but I am not the best person to do division.

Anyway...for money I could take this with close to 22% because I still have significant recube vig. So here I am about 4% worse off than for money. I am guessing this leans just barely on the taking side. Another half a pip would make it a pass.

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