| |
BGonline.org Forums
Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Double action in 2-4-5 backgame (Alfred Mamlet)
Date: Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
I am sure that over the board I would not seriously think about doubling until I got a shot. However, I can see why one might contemplate doubling here. Black is 2-away and the majority of black's wins will be gammons. So the logic is that black is probably going to win the match when he wins whether or not the cube has been turned. So lets double to maximize yellow's take when things go well.
The problem with this is that not all of black's wins are gammons, and doubling turns those single wins into match winners. And there is the question of whether there are sufficient market losers. I see just a few market losers - the cases where black rolls 45 or 56 and is forced to expose two blots. Is this sufficient to double now? I would not be surprised if it was since those sequences are huge. Meanwhile, there is not really such a big cost to doubling early because there is a high probability that black will leave a shot soon and we'll be doubling anyway.
Technically, I'll say this is D/T.
Practically speaking, I'm still not cubing this. I'd much rather make the 5 point, get the single blot (which is very likely), and then double at that time and let black squirm while trying to figure out whether or not to take. I think practically speaking, waiting will generate an order of magnitude more equity in bad passes as black envisions how he's likely to get hit now, likely to leave another shot if missed. Meanwhile, if a blot gets hit, theres a good chance that another blot will get exposed, and before you know it he's found the certain path to getting gammoned.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.