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Random 65

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 3:56 p.m.

In Response To: Random 65 (Stick)

This seems similar to the 65 Falafel problem posted some time back.

It was right to hit and slot the bar at that time, and with the blot on yellow's 4 point, it looks right to do the same now. By making the safer play, this game will be very tough to bring home without leaving another shot, and that will happen after yellow's board has been filled in. In this case, even if hit, we may hit back or make the bar point. If missed, we are way better off because yellow is now knocked off our ace point and we've got a much better chance to make the bar, the 5 point or some other point. Finally, the safe play rates to be dangerous immediately because with the stripped midpoint and the other points 2 apart, there is no safe way to cover with a 4 or 6 if the other die is an odd number. In fact, if missed, I count only 14 numbers that do not leave a shot next turn. Bottom line is that the safe play is no safer. Pay now.

7,1*

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