Ok Richard, Nack, and Neil ruined my collection of problems everyone gets wrong. Neil will still be surprised by the size of Play B's combo meal but at least he got it right. I love this problem because it's a pure lookahead problem. What most of you are looking at is Snowie 1 ply or GNU 0 ply.
If I play 13/2 I leave 11 shots, if I play 13/7 6/1* I leave 20 shots. I don't want to be hit as my opponent's board is quite strong and hitting leaves 5 hit and cover numbers whereas slotting the 2 point only leaves 4 hit and cover numbers. 1 ply finished, play 13/2. (as the bot does on 1 ply!)
On 3 ply however the bot wakes up and sees what is happening. After 13/2 on the 25 rolls you are not hit you'll be forced to leave another shot on all rolls except [33 44 31 51 42 62 53 64], only 14 rolls where you don't leave a shot next turn.
With 13/7 6/1* you're forced to leave another shot on only [44 55 66 61], that's only 5 rolls compared to 22 the other way. This is assuming your opponent does enter with a 62 for example. (fanning with 66 by your opponent would produce more shot leaving numbers but it's a very small aspect of the position I chose to ignore it for the most part)
After 13/7 6/1* if you get away with it now you kick your opponent off the ace point, your immediate shot leaving sequences are greatly reduced, and you also have a much smoother position when trying to bring this home.
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| XGID=---BABB-A-AAcB-c-c-f-B--A-:0:0:-1:65:0:0:0:7:8 | ||||||||||||||||
 to play 65 | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 1 | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.003 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/2 | eq: -0.118 (-0.114) | |||
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| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | ||||||