BGonline.org Forums

OTB and Rollout

Posted By: Alfred Mamlet
Date: Friday, 15 January 2010, at 2:17 a.m.

In Response To: OTB and Rollout (neilkaz)

I extended the rollout to 10k and still TCTC. Indeed, the confidence needle barely budged.

Neil, you are right, XG does better eval at 4-ply than 5-ply -- why is that? In any event, the eval is still more than .100 off of rollout.

	is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 92 7 point match pip: 197 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=----BABAAA------bbbgCB-Bb-:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60.09% (G: 14.11% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.91% (G: 25.90% B: 4.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.81% (G: 14.88% B: 0.90%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.19% (G: 27.76% B: 3.50%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	-0.039
Double:	+0.608
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.584 (-0.003)
Double/Take:	+0.587
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.413)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.010 (+0.574...+0.594)
Confidence Double:	± 0.011 (+0.575...+0.598)
Double Decision confidence:	63.5%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 58 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

	is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 92 7 point match pip: 197 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=----BABAAA------bbbgCB-Bb-:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4 ply
Player Winning Chances:	58.64% (G: 11.97% B: 0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.36% (G: 21.87% B: 0.86%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	-0.030
Double:	+0.470
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.473
Double/Take:	+0.470 (-0.003)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.527)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
  Alfred Mamlet -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 2:59 a.m.
  • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 3:33 a.m.
  • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
    joe freedman -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 4:05 a.m.
    • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 4:33 a.m.
  • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
    • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
      Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 5:35 a.m.
  • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
    • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 7:26 p.m.
      • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
        Stick -- Wednesday, 13 January 2010, at 9:05 p.m.
    • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
      joe freedman -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 5:43 a.m.
      • Double action in 2-4-5 backgame
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 7:04 a.m.
  • OTB and Rollout
    Alfred Mamlet -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 2:51 a.m.
    • OTB and Rollout
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 3:48 p.m.
      • OTB and Rollout
        Alfred Mamlet -- Friday, 15 January 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
        • OTB and Rollout
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 15 January 2010, at 3:49 a.m.
          • OTB and Rollout
            joe freedman -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 6:28 a.m.
            • OTB and Rollout
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
              • OTB and Rollout
                joe freedman -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:07 a.m.