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Early Game 66

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 15 January 2010, at 5:51 a.m.

In Response To: Early Game 66 (Stick)

This is a great roll and likely to be good enough to cube if nothing bad happens.

My first observation is that making the 5 prime and leaving a blot on the 18 point makes it very likely that we'll be on the bar in a moment and with 2 checkers back behind a decent prime and on the bar, that does not look like a position anywhere near ready for a cube. So it looks like making the 18 point is required since whatever goes wrong from there, this game will have a very long way to go.

13/7 is then pretty much forced.

The next question is whether to make the 7 point or the 5 point. There are 14 hits on the 5 point vs. 15 hits on the 7 point. However, leaving the blot on the 5 point also gives a very good non-hitting 26 to black. So it looks like a wash. I'd give the 5 point a slight advantage in the case where black has missed but stepped up to our 3 point since it offers both priming and better attacking possibilities. Which is better if hit? There's some containment advantages to having black possibly still be stuck on the 5 point instead of out in the outfield. However, with 2 blots, there will be some returns from the roof, and it will definitely be stronger having the 5 point if one of those pop out. So again, slight edge to making the 5 point. Finally, making the 5 point leaves one less blot laying around.

Conclusion: 18(2) 7 5

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