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Not so random 54 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 15 January 2010, at 2:35 p.m.

In Response To: Not so random 54 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I wanted to come off the anchor but Mochy & Michy convinced me to play 12/3.

What I saw was that we are very stripped and out of spares, points, and flex. However we have the stronger board and White has a blot so it seems like a good tactical opportunity to create some flex.

White rolled 32 and covered; we rolled 64 and broke the 8; he rolled 41 and made the ace; we rolled 41 and broke the mid and hit loose; he cubed; he rolled 16 and hit and made a 5 point board with two more of our blots loose; I somehow rolled well enough to win after that but thought we had probably made the wrong play with the 54.

White's attack is just too strong as almost every roll hits and makes a 4 or 4.5pt board, though we still have a return shot.

	is Black score: 4 pip: 124 Money session pip: 124 score: 7 is White
XGID=-aBBBB-bB---AB---c-ccBab--:0:0:1:54:7:4:0:0:10
to play 54

* 1.	Rollout1	12/3	eq: -0.079
	Player: Opponent: 48.19% (G:9.90% B:0.35%) 51.81% (G:12.61% B:0.47%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.094...-0.064) Duration: 36 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/12	eq: -0.140 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 48.14% (G:10.68% B:0.55%) 51.86% (G:16.54% B:0.55%) Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.159...-0.121) Duration: 39 minutes 58 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11

However compare with this also common situation where White's deuce is shifted to his ace point. White's rolls still play more or less the same making a 4 or 4.5 point board (albeit a weaker one). However, this is very close but running is marginally correct:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 Money session pip: 122 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B-AbCC-C---ba---bB-bbbbA-:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:0:8
to play 54

1.	Rollout1	21/12	eq: -0.109
	Player: Opponent: 48.84% (G:10.91% B:0.61%) 51.16% (G:16.89% B:0.32%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.122...-0.096) Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/3	eq: -0.120 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 47.43% (G:9.65% B:0.34%) 52.57% (G:13.91% B:0.47%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.131...-0.109) Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes 45 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11

This breaks both Rich's rule #1 and rule #2. Perhaps it's time for rule #3?

Messages In This Thread

• Not so random 54
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 1:25 a.m.
  • Not so random 54
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 1:49 a.m.
  • Not so random 54
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 2:50 a.m.
    • Not so random 54
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 3:20 a.m.
    • Not so random 54
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 7:52 a.m.
  • Not so random 54
    lenny -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 6:11 a.m.
    • Not so random 54
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
  • Not so random 54
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 January 2010, at 6:06 p.m.
  • Not so random 54 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 15 January 2010, at 2:35 p.m.