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Dubrovnik Invitational #2

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 25 January 2010, at 3:56 p.m.

In Response To: Dubrovnik Invitational #2 (Leonardo Jerkovic)

Does Black have a take here? ATS, the leader's 4-cube naive takepoint (assuming no cube vig and no gammons) is around 26%. Gammons heavily favor the trailer ATS with gammon prices of around .55/.16 for T/L and recube vig is minimal since the trailer's 8-cube takepoint is around 9%. How many gammons can White win here? D2 and D5 are great and 3/4 of the other doubles PoH as well. 31 and 54 also point but you might choose to make an outer point with 32 and 43 since pointing leaves a loose position with multiple blots when Black has a strong 5-point board. This looks like it adds up to around 12-13% gammon wins for your side which raises the takepoint to approx 33%. Black has some small g chances himself and some cube vig and these two are probably worth around 2% which makes Black's takepoint 31%. Can he win it this often? I would think so. The race is close and he should be able to win about 40% if there's no more contact and he's still got a reasonable chance if he is pointed on.

Should white send it over? I think there's enough volatility here to justify a redouble. D6,D5,D2, and any point/fan sequence lose the market and I think that is enough for the trailer to redouble ATS.

Messages In This Thread

• Dubrovnik Invitational #2
  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 25 January 2010, at 5:27 a.m.
  • Dubrovnik Invitational #2
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 25 January 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
  • Dubrovnik Invitational #2
    neilkaz -- Monday, 25 January 2010, at 5:32 p.m.
  • Dubrovnik Invitational #2
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 6:21 a.m.